TL;DR
Boris will win the Conservative party leadership election becoming the next prime minister, Britain will crash out of the European Union, the Liberal Democrats will win the next general election.
Trajectory Boris
The Conservative party is the party of the privileged: it is 97% white, 71% male, and dominated by the wealthy.
These Conservative party members think of Boris Johnson like a plucky, amusing uncle. They think he’s a bit of a fool, mostly harmless and most importantly definitively British. They will inevitably vote for Boris to be the next Prime Minister.
Boris will, with the verbosity of Russel Brand and the tactfulness of Trump, fail to make any progress negotiating with the other members of the European Union.
At this point, Boris will either 1) deliberately crash Britain out of the European Union on October 31st with no deal or 2) default blunder towards a Theresa Trap of perpetual negotiation.
To be clear- towards perpetual negotiation doesn’t mean that the deadlines will actually be kicked down the road. While Boris and fans enjoy evoking images of a spam-from-a-can eating blitz defying Britain, no one actually wants to eat spam. And the European Union, viewing Boris as a posh shabby Trump, are feeling as defiant of Britain as they are the USA, and are tired of distractions from their own internal politics.
Either way, Boris leads us in the same direction. Britain is likely to plunge off a no deal Brexit cliff. The 85% of Conservative party members who now support a no deal Brexit will be pleased. The Etonian old boys will make a killing, having bet against the pound.
And as we fall off this cliff, most of us will look up to see crony-capitalist vultures paragliding into the sunset. International firms (stuffed with “patriotic” Brexit supporting Brits) will move in to buy out British industry on the cheap. A great ‘offshoring’ of wealth and assets into international tax havens. And as we fall, some of us will be momentarily distracted by one of Boris’s attention seeking stunts - like getting stuck in a zip line. It will be hilarious- good old uncle Boris.
It’s not all doom and gloom
Roughly 25% of British people favour a no deal Brexit. Many of those people are also disillusioned with politics, preferring antiestablishment, man-of-the-people ex-investment bankers (like Nigel Farage). Even with disproportionate constituency boundaries (favouring the conservatives in the countryside) 25% of the electorate does not make a government.
The majority of British businesses are small and medium enterprises. These small employers also employ the majority of people. These should be natural Conservative supporters - self made entrepreneurs who like their markets to be free and fair.
And so when the Conservatives so blatantly betray the interests of these businesses, whilst the Brexit party draws populists from the right, Conservative support will simply melt away.
Our antiquated first past the post, winner takes all, electoral system favours broad church party’s with breadth of appeal. With the Conservatives pandering to a smaller and smaller base of supporters, moderate voters will look for a new home.
This is in the context of a Labour Party that has gone full left wing mob-mentum. While Conservatives talk of lowering taxes for rich baby boomers is unpopular- Labour’s talk of tax hikes and re-nationalisation is about as popular as magic grandpa’s Lenin hat.
Time is ripe for a moderate, sensible party. A party for the many AND the few.
A party of liberals who are socially democratic. A party of Pro Europeans, economic liberals, those who want capitalism with a heart, a party that takes the environment seriously and values humanities future.
I am of course talking about the Liberal Democrats.
And things are looking up. The Lib Dem’s are well organised and practiced in campaigning with a huge number of supporters.
People are quite rightly tired of having to vote against one party to keep out the other. More and more people are voting for what they believe in. Voting for Liberty, Equality and Community.
It’s looking more and more likely that the hard work and positive campaigning of the Lib Dem’s is paying off.
So while it is extremely likely that we’re about to plunge off a Brexit cliff - we might just be able to reach out and grab a tree branch on the way down.
The great thing about living in a democracy is that people are free to change their minds. And the thing is in life, is that everything seems certain until it isn’t.
Before the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union it seemed a certainty that Britain would remain a liberal socially democratic nation with a leading role in the European Union. That was certain until it wasn’t.
And the UKs departure, international isolation and harsh split with its closest trading partners will be inevitable, until it isn’t.